Translation and Analysis by Dr. Nader Salek
www.Ghlolo.com
1. United States (NOLA) – Sharp Bullish Trend
- Spot granular urea prices in NOLA surged significantly, reaching $455/ton FOB.
- May contracts also saw notable growth, trading at $438/ton FOB as of April 23.
- Buyers continue to show strong interest in near-term shipments, with the market maintaining a strong premium for prompt cargoes.
- Companies like Acron and ADM have entered the freight market for NOLA imports, signaling sustained U.S. import demand.
2. Latin America
- Brazil:
- Prices stabilized at $380–385/ton CFR.
- Despite lower import volumes compared to 2024, spot demand remains weak, with buyers awaiting price drops.
- Limited sales reported at $370–380/ton CFR.
- Argentina: Offers at $405–410/ton CFR, but buyers only engaged at the lower end.
- Mexico: Buyer Tepeyac canceled a request due to high prices ($415/ton CFR) but may return with extended shipment timelines.
3. Europe
- Baltic Sea:
- Prilled urea prices rose to $345–358/ton FOB.
- Producers like Purefert secured high-price sales to Europe and Latin America.
- Ukraine: Domestic prices are declining, with bids $35/ton below prior FOB Black Sea levels, indicating further drops.
- Italy: Slow market but upward price trend (up to $420/ton CIF).
- France: Steady demand with prices stable at €390–395/ton FCA.
4. Middle East & Africa
- Egypt:
- Sales for May shipments reached $395/ton FOB.
- Mopco and Alexfert secured high-price deals; supply for early May is nearly exhausted.
- 5–6-day loading delays may further tighten supply.
- Nigeria: Reduced output due to domestic demand and production issues; prices range $355–400/ton FOB.
- Oman: Ethiopia’s tender saw Omani offers at $405–423/ton FOB.
- Algeria (Sorfert): Sales at $392/ton FOB, aligning with Egypt’s price rally.
5. Asian Markets & Tenders
- Ethiopia: In *EABC’s 675,000-ton tender*, bids ranged $374–423/ton FOB (lowest from Russia, highest from Oman).
- Turkey & Iran: Buyers resist high producer prices, especially for May shipments.
Analytical Conclusion
- Polarized global market: The U.S. (NOLA) shows sharp price growth, while Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey face downward or delayed demand.
- MENA region (Egypt, Oman) benefits from high prices and strong sales, with May supply nearly booked.
- Major tenders (e.g., Ethiopia) and production cuts in some regions may fuel a second price surge in coming weeks.
Continued Urea Market Report – Part 2
(Date: April 24, 2025)
Indian Subcontinent
India: Rising Sales, Falling Production, Low Stocks
- March urea sales rose 7% YoY to 1.671 million tons, with Q1 2025 sales up 32% to 2.492 million tons.
- Production dipped 1% in March (2.477 million tons), with Q1 output down 3% to 7.458 million tons.
- Imports surged 37% to 1.331 million tons, boosting inventories by over 1 million tons in March.
- April forecasts:
- Production: 2.3–2.4 million tons (below April 2024’s 2.53 million).
- Sales: 0.95–1.1 million tons.
- Imports: 200–300K tons (lower YoY).
- Critical issue: April opening stocks 29–31% lower YoY, risking shortages during peak Kharif season. Port stocks (~225K tons as of April 21) are insufficient for full-season demand.
- Next tender likely delayed to mid-May/early June; rumors suggest a 600–800K ton West Coast tender.
Asia & Oceania
- Southeast Asia: Shift toward granular urea over prilled due to price disparities.
- Taiwan’s TFC sought granular urea for H2 May (~$430/ton CFR).
- Brunei’s BFI sold 15K tons at $405/ton FOB to Ameropa.
- Malaysia’s Petronas restarted Gurun plant but not at full capacity.
- Vietnam faces granular urea shortages; prilled offered at $410/ton FOB.
- China:
- Q1 exports plunged 75% YoY to 6,353 tons; CRU doubts May export rumors.
- Domestic prilled urea prices at 1,710–1,780 CNY/ton EXW (~235–244)∗∗,withFOBequivalentsnear∗∗235–244)∗∗,withFOBequivalentsnear∗∗256/ton.
- Producer inventories rose 18% to 1.065 million tons due to weak trading.
- Indonesia:
- Ameropa purchased 45K tons from Bontang at **402.50/tonFOB∗∗(aboveowner’s402.50/tonFOB∗∗(aboveowner’s382.50 estimate).
- Long-term contract talks with Kaltim for 700K tons in 2025 underway.
- Iran:
- Tenders by Pars, Khorasan, Kermanshah, Lordegan, and MIS failed; highest bid **331/tonFOB∗∗(below331/tonFOB∗∗(below350 baseline).
- 250K tons of granular urea estimated available for export in H1 May.
- Current price index: $330–340/ton FOB.
Final Note: This report serves as a strategic foundation for export, marketing, and investment decisions in the global urea market. For real-time updates, visit www.Ghlolo.com.
Translated & Analyzed by Dr. Nader Salek
April 24, 2025
